California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Two Pathways to the Ballot But Maybe One Not So Good

A $5.5 billion, proposed ballot measure today is anywhere from 58 percent to 63 percent on its way to possibly saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction.

The agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), is running out of  money -- the $3 billion that voters gave it in 2004. It needs the initiative to qualify for the ballot and voters to approve it or CIRM will begin closing its doors next fall. 

As of this evening, the multibillion dollar rescue proposal was nominally 63 percent along the road to qualifying. The measure had 394,237 valid signatures of registered voters, according to election officials. It needs 623,212. 

But the campaign says it really wants substantially more. A campaign official today said that its desired figure is 685,534, 110 percent of 623,212. Reaching 110 percent would avoid a "full check," which is a prolonged verification of each signature. That process might not be finished until after the deadline of June 24 for counties to get their figures to state election officials. The state schedules its verification on June 25.

A goal of reaching 685,534, however, means that the backers of the measure have only 58 percent of the signatures needed.

"If the result of the (now ongoing) random sample indicates that the number of valid signatures represents between 95% and 110% of the required number of signatures to qualify the initiative or referendum measure for the ballot, the secretary of state directs the county elections officials to verify every signature on the petition,"  according to the state's ballot initiative web site. 

"For an initiative measure, if the number of valid signatures is greater than 110 percent of the required number of signatures, the initiative measure will be eligible for the ballot," the state says. 

Critical to the process is the percentage of qualified signatures out of the 924,189 that were turned in May 12 by the measure's backers. That percentage is holding relatively steady at about 78 and has varied little as the count has progressed over several weeks. As long as validity rate stays above about 74 percent, the initiative will be sent to voters. 

"We’ve been very pleased with the validity rate so far and believe we have more than enough valid signatures to qualify," said Sarah Melbostad, a campaign spokeswoman.

The measure's validity rate is also closely aligned with five other initiatives that have qualified or nearly qualified in recent months for the fall ballot. Those initiatives have run or are running at rates that range from 73 percent to 78 percent. That is significant because the signatures are largely gathered by firms that specialize in that sort of work. 

It is reasonable to surmise that the firms, which compete for business, are more than likely to produce similar results. (For the other initiatives, see here and also here. The five initiatives mentioned had to labor under the restrictions of the Covid crisis.)

Officials have not yet verified signatures in some larger counties including San Diego, Orange and Riverside.  

Look for the latest figures tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report.