Qualified: California Voters Will Choose in November Whether the State's Stem Cell Agency Lives or Dies

A $5.5 billion stem cell bond measure this afternoon qualified for California's November ballot, where its backers hope that voters will approve it and rescue the state stem cell agency from financial extinction. 

State election officials released a simple statement declaring that the initiative would be presented to the state's 20 million voters, as expected. The measure gathered 716,964 valid signatures of registered voters, according to the count by local officials. The campaign had submitted 924,216 .

The proposal would refinance the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), as the agency is formally known. It is running out of the $3 billion that voters provided for it in 2004. The agency will begin to close its doors next fall without additional funding. 

Capitol Weekly is carrying an overview story by yours truly about the initiative campaign and what lies ahead. Here is how it begins:

"A $5.5 billion stem cell bond measure qualified this afternoon for the November ballot, but the campaign to win voter approval is facing an array of hurdles that its supporters never envisioned last summer when they were formulating the initiative.

"Call it the COVID-19 crunch."....

Here is the statement from the campaign.

Editor's note: Fresh material has been added to this item since it was originally posted shortly before 4 p.m PDT today. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Last Week's Hiccup/Drop Explained by State

Clerical error -- That's what happened in the apparent, sudden setback last week in the effort to qualify for the fall ballot a $5.5 billion initiative to refinance the California stem cell agency.

The problem lay with Fresno County, according to state election officials this morning. Fresno submitted to the state a signature count last Wednesday that really was for another initiative and then withdrew it on Friday.   

A new figure has been submitted for Fresno, but the state did not immediately disclose it. 

Even if all of Fresno's signatures were disqualified, the stem cell measure could make the ballot if San Diego County validates 78 percent of its raw signatures. That percentage is the average qualification rate so far for all the counties that have already reported. 

Under the current process, the initiative needs 685,534 valid signatures of registered voters. State election officials last Friday reported 618,362. 

San Diego has 99,899 raw signatures. Seventy-eight percent would be 77,921, which would provide a statewide total of 696,283 when added to Friday's total.

Here is what happened to the number of valid signatures last week. On  Wednesday June 17, the California Secretary of State, which is the state's top election office, reported 635,298 valid signatures of registered voters on the petitions seeking to place the bond measure on the ballot.

Late Friday June 19, the secretary of state, however, reported a total of only 618,362 valid signatures with no elaboration on why the number had dropped.  The listing of all of 58 California counties showed, however, that the count by Fresno election officials had changed significantly. On Wednesday, Fresno was reported as having 23,175 valid signatures. On Friday, that number been zeroed out and removed.

   

Counties are responsible for verifying the number of valid signatures on the petitions to place initiatives on the ballot. They report to the state, which ultimately determines whether the proposal will come before voters. The state reports daily online on the number of valid signatures, usually around 5 p.m., when it closes its  public operations, but sometimes later. 

The process currently underway relies on both an actual count and random samples. 

The state has set Wednesday as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is Thursday.

Look for the next update on the count this evening or early tomorrow on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Critical Qualification Numbers Drop on Friday with No Explanation

The effort to qualify a $5.5 billion stem cell bond measure for the November ballot unexpectedly lost ground this week in an unexplained drop in the critical count of the number of voter signatures that have been verified on initiative petitions supporting the proposal.

Whether the drop will endanger the qualification of the measure is unclear. State election officials did not respond to queries late Friday nor did the campaign. 

Here is what happened to the number of valid signatures this past week. On  Wednesday June 17, the California Secretary of State, which is the state's top election office, reported 635,298 valid signatures of registered voters on the petitions seeking to place the bond measure on the ballot. It needs 685,534 at this point to be on the ballot. 

Yesterday (Friday June 19), the secretary of state, however, reported a total of only 618,362 valid signatures with no elaboration on why the number had dropped.  The listing of all of 58 California counties showed, however, that the count by Fresno election officials had changed in a major way. On Wednesday, Fresno was reported as having 23,175 valid signatures. On Friday, that number been zeroed out and removed.   

A minor change was reported in Contra Costa county, whose valid signature count increased by 21 between Wednesday and Friday. San Mateo and Inyo counties also reported their verified counts for the first time, respectively 5,699 and 520.

Counties are responsible for verifying the number of valid signatures on the petitions to place initiatives on the ballot. They report to the state, which ultimately determines whether the proposal will come before voters. The state reports daily online on the number of valid signatures, usually around 5 p.m., when it closes its  public operations, but sometimes later. 

The process currently underway relies on both an actual count and random samples. 

The disappearance of the Fresno count could be simply a clerical error or something of that sort.  But that will not be known until Monday when government offices open for normal business.  Two other initiatives currently pending also show no valid signatures being reported from Fresno. 

The state has set next Wednesday as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is next Thursday.

Look for the next update on the count Monday evening or early Tuesday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: No Fresh Numbers, Still Short of Qualifying

State elections officials reported this morning that there is no change in the figures concerning the qualification of a $5.5 billion stem cell bond measure for the November ballot. 

The measure remains 50,236 signatures short of being placed on the ballot with six counties outstanding. San Diego has the largest number of raw signatures, 99,899 unverified.

The proposed ballot measure, which appears all but certain to qualify, is aimed at financially saving the state stem cell agency, which is running out of cash. It will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

The state has set next Wednesday as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is one week from today.

Look for the next update on the count this evening or early Saturday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

Ballot Initiative Advisory

As of 8:43 p.m. today state election officials had not posted fresh figures on the count that will determine whether a $5.5 billion stem cell bond measure will qualify for the November ballot. The California Stem Cell Report will be monitoring the situation this evening and will post an item on any new figures if and when they become available.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: 50,236 More Signatures Needed

A $5.5 billion stem cell initiative this afternoon remained shy of qualifying for California's November ballot with only five business days remaining before the count must be complete.

The proposed ballot measure is aimed at saving the state stem cell agency, which is running out of cash. It will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

State officials today reported 635,298 verified signatures of registered voters, up from yesterday's 610,742. The campaign's goal is 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. 

The measure needs only 50,236 more to hit 685,534. Six counties with a total of 115,400 raw signatures have not completed their verification. The largest is San Diego, with 99,899 unverified. The others are Butte, 6,502; Inyo, 610; Kings, 1,756; San Mateo, 6,491, and Trinity, 142. 

The state has set June 24 as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is June 25.

(It is too late for more persons to sign petitions for the campaign.)

Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Only 74,792 Signatures Left to Go

The effort to qualify a $5.5 billion stem cell initiative for California's November ballot gained 24,606 signatures this afternoon with only six business days remaining before the count must be complete.

The proposed ballot initiative is aimed at saving the state stem cell agency, which is running out of cash. It will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

State officials today reported 610,742 verified signatures of registered voters, up from Monday's 586,136. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. 

The measure needs only 74,792 more to hit 685,534. Eight counties have not completed their verification, including San Diego, with 99,899 unverified. 

The state has set June 24 as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is June 25.

Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Thursday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: San Diego County, With 99,899 Raw Signatures, Still Working on Verification

An effort to place a $5.5 billion stem cell initiative on the November ballot in California notched another 48,578 signatures this afternoon with only seven business days left until the count must be complete.

The proposed ballot initiative is aimed at saving the state stem cell agency from financial extinction. The 15-year-old program is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

Last week, the California Stem Cell Report analyzed the trends in the tally, concluding that qualification is in the "virtual bag."

Today's tally from state officials showed 586,136 verified signatures of registered voters, up from Friday's 537,558. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. If the qualification rate stays fractionally above 67 percent, the measure will be placed on the ballot. 

The measure needs only 99,398 more to hit 685,534. Ten counties have not completed their verification, including San Diego, with 99,899 unverified. Fresno follows with 29,073 and Contra Costa with 23,167. The remaining counties have much smaller numbers of raw signatures.

The state has set June 24 as the deadline for counties to complete their tally. The state's deadline for itself is June 25.

Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Tuesday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Total Now up to Nearly 540,000

California county elections officials have been tallying
signatures on stem cell initiative petitions for one month.

Nearly 27,000 signatures were added today as the $5.5 billion effort to rescue the California stem cell agency moved slowly towards an all-but-assured position on the November ballot

The proposed ballot initiative is aimed at saving the agency from its financial demise. The 15-year-old program is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

Earlier this week, the California Stem Cell Report analyzed the trends in the tally, concluding that qualification is in the "virtual bag." 

Today's figures from state officials showed 537,558 verified signatures of registered voters, up from yesterday's 510,930. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. If the qualification rate stays fractionally above 67 percent, the measure will be placed on the ballot.  

Look for the next update on the count Monday evening or early Tuesday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Campaign Not Likely To Sue for Deadline Extension

Solano County contributed 7,670 signatures this afternoon to the snail-like progress of a $5.5 billion stem cell research proposal towards a virtually assured position on the November ballot.

The measure is aimed at saving the California stem cell agency from fiscal extinction. The 15-year-old program is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors in the fall without more funds. 

Earlier this week, The California Stem Cell Report analyzed the trends in the count, concluding that qualification is in the "virtual bag." 

Today's figures from state officials showed 510,930 verified signatures of registered voters, up from yesterday's 503,260. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. If the qualification rate stays fractionally above 67 percent, the measure will be placed on the ballot.  

Only 14 counties out of 58 have not filed their verification numbers.

If the stem call initiative comes up short, it could join the effort to force the state to extend the deadline. Two groups have already sued seeking more time. One effort involves sports betting at Native American casinos. The other involves data privacy. The basic argument is that the Covid-19 crisis seriously and unexpectedly hampered the signature gathering which is constitutionally protected process. 

However, in response to a query, campaign spokeswoman  Sarah Melbostad today said,

"We have been pleased with the validity rates we’ve seen so far and are still confident that we are going to qualify for the November 2020 ballot. We have no plans to join these lawsuits or to file our own."

Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Saturday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Formal Upward Trend, Qualification Clearly Likely

A $5.5 billion initiative to refinance the California stem cell agency with $5.5 billion chalked up additional formal progress today, although it is clear that it will go before voters in November.

The numbers already show that the measure is virtually certain to make the ballot unless something extremely unusual occurs. The California Stem Cell Report earlier today analyzed the trends in the signature count, concluding that qualification is in the "virtual bag." The analysis also appeared on Capitol Weekly, an online California government and politics news service.

Today's figures from state officials showed 484,973 verified signatures of registered voters, up from 481,689 on Friday. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. If the qualification rate stays fractionally above 67 percent, the measure will be placed on the ballot.  

Only 17 counties out of 58 have not filed their verification numbers.

Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Wednesday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.

(Editor's note: An earlier version said that 16 counties have not filed their verification numbers. The correct figure is 17.)

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Ballot Qualification in Virtual Bag

California Stem Cell Initiative:

Current Shortfall for Ballot Qualification

Total Raw Signatures	924,189
Total Outstanding Unverified	305,312
Total Needed Under Quickest Way to Qualify	685,534
Total  Verified	481,689
Current Shortfall	203,845

Source: California Secretary of State 6/5/2020/California Stem Cell Report

The $5.5 billion California stem cell initiative is virtually certain to qualify for the fall ballot as the arithmetic of the signature count begins to fall into place.

The measure needs only slightly more than the 67 percent of the signatures that remain to be verified as coming from registered voters. The qualification percentage of raw signatures so far is 78 percent.

It is unlikely that that the qualification rate for the remaining raw signatures would drop as low as 66 per percent unless something quite unusual occurs. Only 18 of the 58 counties have yet to verify their raw signatures, which total 305,312. The initiative needs 203,845 verified signatures to make the ballot.

The ballot initiative is aimed at saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction. Known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the agency has nearly run through the $3 billion it received from voters in 2004. Without a major cash infusion, it will begin closing its doors next fall.

The campaign is shooting for the quickest way to the ballot. It submitted 924,189 raw signatures about one month ago. Legally, the measure needs only 623,212 signatures that are verified to have come from registered voters.

However, the state permits a combination of a random and hand count total of 110 percent of that number to qualify a measure without going to a signature-by-signature verification. County election officials are currently in the combination, random sample phase of checking the signatures on the ballot initiative petition.

If the current process falls short of 110 percent, the state requires a "full check" of each signature, a task that likely cannot be completed by the state's deadline of June 25. Counties have until June 24 to report to the state. (If the percentage falls below 95, the measure will not qualify.)

See here for the state's official report on the count as of the end of work last Friday. Here are more details on how the initiative process works in California.

The California Stem Cell Report will have updated figures this evening or early tomorrow.

California Stem Cell Ballot Initiative Signature Count

Unverified/raw signatures outstanding as of June 5, 2020

County	Raw Signatures
Alameda	31,002
Butte	6,502
Contra Costa	23,167
Fresno	29,072
Inyo	610
Kings	1,756
Lake	2,088
Placer	8,343
Riverside	51,478
San Benito	485
San Diego	99,899
San Francisco	14,263
San Mateo	6,491
Santa Cruz	6,436
Solano	9,910
Trinity	142
Tulare	9,663
Yolo	4,005
Total Outstanding Unverified	305,312

Source: California Secretary of State 6/5/2020, California Stem Cell Report
(Editor's note: An earlier version of this chart listed San Joaquin in place of San Francisco.)

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: 70 Percent on the Way to Making the Ballot

State election officials yesterday reported that the $5.5 billion, California stem cell initiative is 70 percent on its way to qualifying for the November ballot. 

The latest number of valid signatures totalled 481,689. The measure's backers hope that they will have 685,534 valid signatures of registered voters out of 924,189 unverified signatures they submitted nearly a month ago.

The qualification rate still stands at about 78 percent.

The proposal would save the financial life of the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It was provided with $3 billion by California voers who created in in 2004. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance.

Reporting in yesterday was Orange County. Among the larger counties not yet reporting are San Diego and Riverside.

Look for an update on the tally Monday evening or early Tuesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM). 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Sixty Percent on the Way to the Ballot

The $5.5 billion, California stem cell initiative this afternoon climbed closer to qualifying for the ballot but still remains more 200,000 signatures away from going before voters in the fall. 

The measure is an effort to financially rescue the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance. 

Today's report from state election officials showed 411,839 verified signatures out of a raw total of 924,189.  Backers of the measure are hoping for 685,534 valid signatures to avoid going to a "full check," signature-by-signature count. Such an effort in 58 counties could be so prolonged that the measure would miss the deadline for being placed on the ballot. 

The current count is a combination of a hand count and random sampling. 

State election officials have set a deadline of June 24 for counties to submit figures. The state's own deadline to complete its work is June 25.

Today's tally is 60 percent of the needed 685,534. It is 110 percent of the legally required figure of 623,212.

So far about 78 percent of the raw signatures have been verified as coming from legally registered voters. 

Still missing from the total of verified signatures are San Diego, Riverside and Orange counties, which have a total of 200,546 raw signatures. 

Look for an update on the tally tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM). 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Two Pathways to the Ballot But Maybe One Not So Good

A $5.5 billion, proposed ballot measure today is anywhere from 58 percent to 63 percent on its way to possibly saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction.

The agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), is running out of  money -- the $3 billion that voters gave it in 2004. It needs the initiative to qualify for the ballot and voters to approve it or CIRM will begin closing its doors next fall. 

As of this evening, the multibillion dollar rescue proposal was nominally 63 percent along the road to qualifying. The measure had 394,237 valid signatures of registered voters, according to election officials. It needs 623,212. 

But the campaign says it really wants substantially more. A campaign official today said that its desired figure is 685,534, 110 percent of 623,212. Reaching 110 percent would avoid a "full check," which is a prolonged verification of each signature. That process might not be finished until after the deadline of June 24 for counties to get their figures to state election officials. The state schedules its verification on June 25.

A goal of reaching 685,534, however, means that the backers of the measure have only 58 percent of the signatures needed.

"If the result of the (now ongoing) random sample indicates that the number of valid signatures represents between 95% and 110% of the required number of signatures to qualify the initiative or referendum measure for the ballot, the secretary of state directs the county elections officials to verify every signature on the petition,"  according to the state's ballot initiative web site. 

"For an initiative measure, if the number of valid signatures is greater than 110 percent of the required number of signatures, the initiative measure will be eligible for the ballot," the state says. 

Critical to the process is the percentage of qualified signatures out of the 924,189 that were turned in May 12 by the measure's backers. That percentage is holding relatively steady at about 78 and has varied little as the count has progressed over several weeks. As long as validity rate stays above about 74 percent, the initiative will be sent to voters. 

"We’ve been very pleased with the validity rate so far and believe we have more than enough valid signatures to qualify," said Sarah Melbostad, a campaign spokeswoman.

The measure's validity rate is also closely aligned with five other initiatives that have qualified or nearly qualified in recent months for the fall ballot. Those initiatives have run or are running at rates that range from 73 percent to 78 percent. That is significant because the signatures are largely gathered by firms that specialize in that sort of work. 

It is reasonable to surmise that the firms, which compete for business, are more than likely to produce similar results. (For the other initiatives, see here and also here. The five initiatives mentioned had to labor under the restrictions of the Covid crisis.)

Officials have not yet verified signatures in some larger counties including San Diego, Orange and Riverside.  

Look for the latest figures tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report.

Advisory: Update on Ballot Count for California Stem Cell Measure

The state elections office reported this afternoon that later today it will post fresh figures on the qualification count for the $5.5 billion stem cell measure. A spokesman for the office said that it has not received any fresh figures from the counties since Monday afternoon. The California Stem Cell Report will carry an item on the latest figures when they come in.

Advisory on Ballot Initiative Count, Fresh Figures Not Forthcoming

State election officials have not posted a fresh count of signatures on the $5.5 billion stem cell proposal since Monday evening. We are inquiring about the matter and will post what we learn when we learn it.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Sixty-two Percent Along the Road to the November Ballot

Backers of California's $5.5 billion stem cell research measure this afternoon received a hefty boost as their effort to place the proposal on the November ballot moved dramatically forward. 

The initiative is now 62 percent along the path to reaching voters. That figure emerged when Los Angeles County reported that it has counted 231,196 valid signatures of registered voters. The total number of valid signatures now stands 381,849. To be placed on the ballot requires 623,212. 

The percentage of valid signatures at 78 percent. If that qualification rate holds up, the proposal will be on the ballot since the campaign has submitted 924,189 "raw" signatures. Still outstanding are large counties such San Diego, Riverside and Orange.

The measure is aimed at saving the financial life of California's stem cell agency, which has nearly run through the $3 billion that voters provided it in 2004. With no infusion of additional funds, it will begin closing its doors next fall. 

Look for an updated count tomorrow evening or early Wednesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Snail-like Progress Towards the Ballot

The final steps to qualify a $5.5 billion stem cell measure for the California ballot in November moved slowly this past week with the latest figures rising only marginally. 

State officials reported late yesterday that the number of valid signatures stood at 150,598, up slightly from 146,611 the previous day. 

In order to save the California stem cell agency from financial extinction, the initiative needs 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters.  Backers submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures.  

The signature disqualification rate yesterday stood at 22 percent, which is where it has been since May 22.

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

Look for an updated count Monday evening or early Tuesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Still Creeping Up Little by Little

The drive to save the California stem cell agency with a $5.5 billion bond measure gathered modest momentum today in the signature count to put the proposal on the November ballot. 

The total number of valid or projected valid signatures late this afternoon advanced to 146,611, up slightly from 98,159 yesterday. The ballot initiative needs 623,212 valid signatures. Backers submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures.  

The signature disqualification rate stood at 21 percent, about the same as yesterday's 22 percent.

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24 -- 20 business days away. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

Look for an updated count tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report.