California Stem Cell Backers Fire Up Major Social Media Effort for $5.5 Billion Proposition 14

Backers of the $5.5 billion measure to save California's stem cell research program launched a major social media effort this week, declaring that they could not afford to compete with "the big money campaigns for significant airtime."

The campaign organization behind Proposition 14, the stem cell ballot initiative, sent out an email pitch recruiting sympathizers to help out via Facebook, Twitter, email, and other Internet avenues. The campaign email went to those on the mailing list of the campaign organization, which likely contains thousands of names.  The numbers could be much, much larger if the campaign is purchasing email lists. 

The campaign email (see below) said, 

"There are only 35 days left before election day, and mail-in ballots are already out in many California counties. We need your help to get the word out about Prop 14 and the fight to save stem cell research, treatments and cures in California! With a crowded election we will need to work hard break through the noise and urge Californians to vote “YES” on Prop 14.

"Leading up to the election, we’ll be sending you sample social media posts, newsletter articles and email blasts – and all we need you to do is share what we send with your channels! We are a patient advocate driven movement, so we don’t have the resources to compete with the big money campaigns for significant airtime, and our path to victory relies on the help of other passionate patient advocates like you. Your efforts will make all the difference, and with mail-in ballots already out it is absolutely critical that this work starts today."

The pitch included canned texts for use in emails to general audiences and non-profit organizations. Canned messages to be used on Facebook and Twitter were provided along with appropriate hashtags for Twitter. A "sample email blast" emphasized that "the federal government  WILL NOT save most of the promising research and therapies in development that would be abandoned if Prop. 14 fails."

Social media campaigns are increasingly important in political and ballot measure campaigns, regardless of whether a campaign can afford traditional TV advertising. Such advertising is less useful in generating support for a number of reasons, including segmentation of media consumption. 

So far, no significant, major opposition has surfaced against Proposition 14.

The campaign for the measure is led by Robert Klein, who sponsored Proposition 14 and is responsible for the writing of the 17,000-word measure. Klein also wrote the 10,000-word, 2004 ballot measure that created the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), as the agency is officially known. Klein is a Palo Alto, Ca., real estate developer.

Klein hired FionaHutton &Associates of Studio City, Ca., to handle the bulk of the campaign work.  

2020-09-29 Proposition 14 California Social Media Email by California Stem Cell Report on Scribd

California's New Stem Cell Initiative and Its $7.8 Billion Cost, Including Interest

The price tag for refinancing California's unique and ambitious stem cell research program could run to close to $7.8 billion, give or take a few hundred million dollars or more. 

So says the state's legislative analyst in a financial analysis of a proposed ballot initiative that is likely to be on next November's ballot. The measure would provide $5.5 billion more for research awards to California scientists by the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), as the state stem cell agency is formally known. 

The increase in the price tag is caused by the fact that the $5.5 billion would be borrowed money -- bonds that would be issued by the state. The legislative analyst estimated that the interest costs could total $2.3 billion, bringing the actual expense to taxpayers to $7.8 billion. 

Significant caveats exist, however. The legislative analyst, who prepares these sorts of analyses for all ballot measures, cautioned that the $7.8 billion estimate could rise or fall depending on how interest rates rise or fall. Another unknown involves the length of the payback period. 

What the legislative analyst has to say is a significant matter for the proposed initiative, whose success will determine the financial survival of the agency. CIRM is running out of cash. It was funded by voters 15 years ago with $3 billion. If the proposed initiative fails, CIRM will wither away over the next two to three years. 

Should the initiative qualify for the ballot, the seven-page financial overview of the measure would be delivered, via the state's official voter's guide, to about 20 million California voters prior to the election. The overview would also serve as the basis for news stories in virtually all of the media, which is always looking for bottom line figures.

Beyond the interest costs, the analysis carried other financial bits of interest. It said that over an initial, five-year period the agency would use some the bond proceeds to pay the interest on the money it is borrowing. The analyst said, 

"Were the state to begin issuing bonds shortly after approval of the measure, CIRM would likely make interest payments totaling in the low hundreds of millions of dollars from bond proceeds by the end of 2025."

The proposed initiative also places a 6.5 percent cap on total funding for certain operational expenses including administration and grant oversight. Other changes would give more freedom to the agency, which originally had a 50-person cap on staff. That cap was later removed by state legislation. The new initiative would set the cap at 70 with a provision for more employees beyond that number, under certain conditions involving, among other things, compensating them with cash raised privately. 

The new initiative stipulates that the agency improve access to stem cell therapies, funding that effort with up to 1 percent of the $5.5 billion, a change from the current law involving CIRM.  Other changes from the current situation: 1.5 percent for starting "community care centers" for new clinical trial sites, $1.5 billion for research into brain and nervous system diseases and up to 0.5 percent for a shared lab program. 

Royalties from any therapies financed by CIRM research would go to the agency and not the state general fund, as currently is the case. So far, royalties have totaled only about $200,000. Larger amounts are likely to appear in the next decade as the therapies emerge from the research that was financed years ago. 

Regarding possible savings as the result of more cost-effective therapies, the analysis said, 

"To the extent the measure results in new treatments that are more cost-effective than existing treatments, state and local governments could experience savings in some programs such as Medi-Cal, the state’s subsidized health care program for low-income people. The magnitude of these and other indirect effects is unknown."

The stem cell agency, which was created by voters in 2004, has yet to finance research that has led to stem cell treatments that are approved for general public use. 

In 2004, the legislative analyst prepared an interest cost estimate of $3 billion on the original amount for awards, also $3 billion. However, the projections did not anticipate the recession of 2008, which resulted in a long-term drop in interest rates. Today, the interest on the original $3 billion is expected to be about $1 billion.

Here are links to more information on proposed initiative and related matters:

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 08, 2019

LA Times: $5.5 Billion Measure for California Stem Cell Agency Could Actually Be a 'Downfall'

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019

$5.5 Billion Stem Cell Ballot Measure: Questions in California but Apparently No Foot-Dragging

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 04, 2019

California Stem Cell Agency Chalks Up its 60th Clinical Trial as Funds Dwindle

LA Times: $5.5 Billion Measure for California Stem Cell Agency Could Actually Be a 'Downfall'

The Los Angeles Times, California's largest circulation newspaper, carried a piece today that called for withdrawal of the proposed, $5.5 billion ballot initiative that would save the financial life of the state's stem cell agency.

The article by Pulitzer Prize-winning business columnist Michael Hiltzik said the measure would perpetuate many of the flaws in the ballot proposition in 2004 that created the agency, officially known as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM). 

In fact, Hiltzik said, the new measure "makes some of them worse."

"That’s dangerous," Hiltzik continued, "because although the measure could fuel the stem cell program for years to come, it might also prompt a repudiation by voters sensitive to its many imperfections. Such an outcome would be tragic for California and the advanced science already supported by CIRM."

Hiltzik's opinion piece was the first extended look at the proposed stem cell initiative by a major media outlet in California. It appeared on the front page of today's business section of the Times. On the paper's web site, the article was featured as a "weekend read" at the time of this writing. 

The Times says it has about 2 million readers on Sunday. It is a go-to source for other journalists when they are researching stories and trying to understand major issues facing the state. 

Hiltzik has followed the $3 billion agency since its inception and has been highly critical. Last spring, however, he wrote that the agency had "proved its value." In today's piece, he had a lot to say about the good work of the agency. 

In his first two paragraphs, Hiltzik declared that CIRM "has made great strides in advancing what’s known as regenerative medicine and placing California at the center of the developing science." Hiltzik also said that CIRM has financed state-of-the-art laboratories, attracted preeminent scientists and "brought scores of promising treatments for severe chronic diseases to the point of clinical trials."

But he also noted that the agency has "has so far failed to yield a single marketable clinical product." He continued, 

"That’s despite the sales pitch for Proposition 71 in 2004 -- that all that stood in the way of 'cures' for Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, spinal cord injuries and other maladies was money."

The greatest flaw of the agency, however, has more to do with public policy than science, Hiltzik wrote. And that is the exemption of the agency from the usual oversight by the legislature and the governor, an exemption contained in the measure that created the agency.

Voters provided CIRM with $3 billion in bond funding 15 years ago. 
Today that money has all but run out. Robert Klein, a real estate developer, first chairman of the agency and who sponsored Proposition 71, is now once again sponsoring the latest initiative to give it billions more. 

Hiltzik concluded,

"(Klein) should withdraw his measure, and CIRM’s leadership should write a new one or work with Gov. Newsom and the Legislature to map out the program’s next act. 

"CIRM’s leadership needs to show the public that it’s capable of taking charge of the program’s destiny. If it’s not willing to make its own case for CIRM’s continued existence, how can it persuade voters to give it one cent more?"