The California stem cell agency is nearing the end of its “normal”
life span, and the topic of its future comes up with some regularity
nowadays within the Golden State's stem cell community.
It is a tiny community that has benefited to the tune of $1.9 billion so far from the
passage of
Prop. 71, the ballot measure that created the agency nine years ago this month.
The latest public discussion of what
UC Davis stem cell researcher
Paul Knoepfler has dubbed “
CIRM 2.0” came
on Knoepfler's blog last week and a short time later on
the agency's own blog. CIRM is
the acronym for the
California Institute for Regenerative Medicine,
the formal name of the agency.
Predictably the most recent discussion, as generally occurs,
emphasized the importance of the science and promise that it poses.
Rarely heard, however, is whether the agency's efforts have been
worth $6 billion (CIRM's projected cost including interest) and whether
spending billions more over another decade ranks among the top ten
priorities, for example, facing the state during the same period.
That is the fundamental question facing CIRM if it is to seek
additional public funding for its operations beyond 2017, when the
cash for new grants will run out.
On his blog, Knoepfler cites four main reasons for the state to
continue to support the agency at a high level. He says that it has
“strongly boosted” the state's economy, made the state a global
leader in stem cell research, created strong scientific momentum and,
finally, that California faces a “potential harmful stem cell brain
drain” should CIRM close its doors.
In a comment posted on Knoepfler's item,
Jeanne Loring, head of the stem cell
program at
Scripps, said the future of CIRM inevitably arises in any
conversation between any two stem cell researchers in California.
She
said a “continued investment in CIRM will pay off enormously” for
the state. She said,
“CIRM has had the same effect on stem cell research that
Genentech had on biotechnology; it showed that taking a chance on a
focused investment in new technology could transform the future of
medicine. Now, with CIRM’s focus on supporting partnerships of stem
cell researchers with successful biotechnology companies, we have the
best of both California-centric worlds: the power of technology
applied to the abilities of stem cells. Such partnerships, especially
in rapidly growing fields like genomics, will sustain progress beyond
CIRM’s current reach.”
There is little doubt that CIRM has had a positive impact on
California. But the claims that it has “strongly boosted” the
California economy are dubious. Such assertions are based on a report
commissioned by the agency itself at a cost of $300,000. According
to the RFP for the project, the recipient of the contract for the
study was to execute "a vibrant and aggressive strategy to
support the goals and initiatives of CIRM.” (See
here and
here.)
Additionally, the
California economy runs in
the neighborhood of $2 trillion a year
with
approximately 19 million persons in the work force. Biotech,
which accounts for a relatively picayune 200,000 employees or so in
California, is a miniscule economic player. (See
here and
here.) Stem cell companies and
research are even smaller. As for the $1.9 billion CIRM has awarded, it has gone to only 625 recipients, a handful of which are businesses or institutions.
If the agency is to be evaluated as an industry-development
engine, the criteria are also considerably different than would be
used to evaluate a research-funding organization. Such an industrial
evaluation was resisted strongly by
Robert Klein, the first chairman
of the agency, when the
California Stem Cell Report suggested it to
him some years ago. Ironically, Klein likes to trot out CIRM's own,
dubious economic study when it suits his purpose.
Production of stem cell “cures” or therapies is also unlikely
to employ the hundreds of thousands of Californians needed to make a
major economic impact. Actual production of any “cures” is
likely to occur overseas for the usual business reasons and thus not
provide massive amounts of jobs within the state. That said, the
owners of successful stem cell companies could become extremely
wealthy a la their cousins in the Silicon Valley.
California Gov.
Jerry Brown, who is widely expected to seek
re-election next year, has already identified two, long-term
mega-projects that he believes are fundamental to the economic
well-being of California – high speed rail and a massive water
project. The cost of those two efforts is likely to run in the
neighborhood of close to $100 billion, according to the most recent
estimates. That is not to mention the financially starved
University
of California, state colleges and community colleges or even the
youngsters who need to learn to read and write in the state's public
schools. Adequate support of those institutions, which are critical
to the state's economy, would require many more billions. Brown
notably has not spoken publicly about his views on the value of the
stem cell agency. His support would be needed for CIRM to acquire
additional public dollars.
For the people of California, the question would be: How does stem cell
research fit in with their perception of the needs of California,
ranging from education to water to other priorities? At this point,
the stem cell agency and its work are virtually unknown to the
general public. The agency is working hard to improve its visibility
and create an atmosphere conducive to generating more cash. But it is
very much up in the air whether CIRM can successfully set the stage
for infusion of more billions of public dollars.