California's nearly 10-year-old effort
to develop therapies from stem cells is riding a technology wave that
some folks are saying will pick up considerable momentum this year.
That is good news for the state's $3 billion stem
cell agency, the California Institute of Regenerative Medicine, which
will run out of cash for new grants in 2017 and which is looking for
new sources of revenue from the private sector.
The latest outlook for regenerative
medicine was posted on re/code, a new technology Web site led by a couple of well-known refugees from the Wall Street Journal, Walt
Mossberg and Kara Swisher. One of their writers, James Temple,
weighed in with a piece on Jan. 1 about technology forecasts for 2014.
He said “five clear themes emerged”
and one involved regenerative medicine. Temple, a former San
Francisco Chronicle columnist, quoted James Canton, CEO of the
Institute for Global Futures, as saying “major strides” are in
the offing for 2014. In an email to Temple, Canton said,
“The most significant trends and breakthroughs in 2014 will be in regenerative medicine: The use of human stem cells to grow new organs, repair tissues (and) heal patients with numerous cardiovascular and autoimmune diseases.”
Another one of Temple's “futurists,”
David Houle, author of “The Shift Age,” said that “sometime
between now and 2020, 'our replacement parts will be superior to
the parts we are born with.'”
Temple yesterday looked back to 2013 via a
report by the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson
Reuters. It said that the biotech industry accounted for 42 out of 82
venture-backed initial public offereings last year. The figure was
five times more than the biotech sector offerings in the last five
years.
Temple's pieces followed other stem cell forecasts from UC Davis researcher and blogger Paul
Knoepfler, who is also optimistic. Knoepfler even predicted a “big
announcement from Big Pharma” on stem cells or regenerative
medicine.
Whether the forecasts are correct or
whether the IPO trend will continue is a bit beside the point for the
stem cell agency. What they can profit from is the fact that this
kind of news generates excitement among investors and among those who
might be willing to make a major bet on the Golden State's stem cell
agency. Fund-raising becomes easier when the public rhetoric is more
than optimistic. The band wagon effect takes hold. The visions of
hope that entranced 59 percent of California voters in 2004 when they
created the stem cell agency seem much closer to reality.
Catching this wave, however, is no easy
matter, and the agency's 29 directors stalled last month when faced with a plan for a new financial future. Whether they can act with
dispatch on this issue remains to be seen.