California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Two Pathways to the Ballot But Maybe One Not So Good

A $5.5 billion, proposed ballot measure today is anywhere from 58 percent to 63 percent on its way to possibly saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction.

The agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), is running out of  money -- the $3 billion that voters gave it in 2004. It needs the initiative to qualify for the ballot and voters to approve it or CIRM will begin closing its doors next fall. 

As of this evening, the multibillion dollar rescue proposal was nominally 63 percent along the road to qualifying. The measure had 394,237 valid signatures of registered voters, according to election officials. It needs 623,212. 

But the campaign says it really wants substantially more. A campaign official today said that its desired figure is 685,534, 110 percent of 623,212. Reaching 110 percent would avoid a "full check," which is a prolonged verification of each signature. That process might not be finished until after the deadline of June 24 for counties to get their figures to state election officials. The state schedules its verification on June 25.

A goal of reaching 685,534, however, means that the backers of the measure have only 58 percent of the signatures needed.

"If the result of the (now ongoing) random sample indicates that the number of valid signatures represents between 95% and 110% of the required number of signatures to qualify the initiative or referendum measure for the ballot, the secretary of state directs the county elections officials to verify every signature on the petition,"  according to the state's ballot initiative web site. 

"For an initiative measure, if the number of valid signatures is greater than 110 percent of the required number of signatures, the initiative measure will be eligible for the ballot," the state says. 

Critical to the process is the percentage of qualified signatures out of the 924,189 that were turned in May 12 by the measure's backers. That percentage is holding relatively steady at about 78 and has varied little as the count has progressed over several weeks. As long as validity rate stays above about 74 percent, the initiative will be sent to voters. 

"We’ve been very pleased with the validity rate so far and believe we have more than enough valid signatures to qualify," said Sarah Melbostad, a campaign spokeswoman.

The measure's validity rate is also closely aligned with five other initiatives that have qualified or nearly qualified in recent months for the fall ballot. Those initiatives have run or are running at rates that range from 73 percent to 78 percent. That is significant because the signatures are largely gathered by firms that specialize in that sort of work. 

It is reasonable to surmise that the firms, which compete for business, are more than likely to produce similar results. (For the other initiatives, see here and also here. The five initiatives mentioned had to labor under the restrictions of the Covid crisis.)

Officials have not yet verified signatures in some larger counties including San Diego, Orange and Riverside.  

Look for the latest figures tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report.

Advisory: Update on Ballot Count for California Stem Cell Measure

The state elections office reported this afternoon that later today it will post fresh figures on the qualification count for the $5.5 billion stem cell measure. A spokesman for the office said that it has not received any fresh figures from the counties since Monday afternoon. The California Stem Cell Report will carry an item on the latest figures when they come in.

Advisory on Ballot Initiative Count, Fresh Figures Not Forthcoming

State election officials have not posted a fresh count of signatures on the $5.5 billion stem cell proposal since Monday evening. We are inquiring about the matter and will post what we learn when we learn it.

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Sixty-two Percent Along the Road to the November Ballot

Backers of California's $5.5 billion stem cell research measure this afternoon received a hefty boost as their effort to place the proposal on the November ballot moved dramatically forward. 

The initiative is now 62 percent along the path to reaching voters. That figure emerged when Los Angeles County reported that it has counted 231,196 valid signatures of registered voters. The total number of valid signatures now stands 381,849. To be placed on the ballot requires 623,212. 

The percentage of valid signatures at 78 percent. If that qualification rate holds up, the proposal will be on the ballot since the campaign has submitted 924,189 "raw" signatures. Still outstanding are large counties such San Diego, Riverside and Orange.

The measure is aimed at saving the financial life of California's stem cell agency, which has nearly run through the $3 billion that voters provided it in 2004. With no infusion of additional funds, it will begin closing its doors next fall. 

Look for an updated count tomorrow evening or early Wednesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Snail-like Progress Towards the Ballot

The final steps to qualify a $5.5 billion stem cell measure for the California ballot in November moved slowly this past week with the latest figures rising only marginally. 

State officials reported late yesterday that the number of valid signatures stood at 150,598, up slightly from 146,611 the previous day. 

In order to save the California stem cell agency from financial extinction, the initiative needs 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters.  Backers submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures.  

The signature disqualification rate yesterday stood at 22 percent, which is where it has been since May 22.

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

Look for an updated count Monday evening or early Tuesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Still Creeping Up Little by Little

The drive to save the California stem cell agency with a $5.5 billion bond measure gathered modest momentum today in the signature count to put the proposal on the November ballot. 

The total number of valid or projected valid signatures late this afternoon advanced to 146,611, up slightly from 98,159 yesterday. The ballot initiative needs 623,212 valid signatures. Backers submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures.  

The signature disqualification rate stood at 21 percent, about the same as yesterday's 22 percent.

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24 -- 20 business days away. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

Look for an updated count tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: No Big Jump Today

New totals tonight show slight progress in the drive to rescue the financially strapped California stem cell agency, adding only 6,717 signatures to qualify a $5.5 billion measure for the November ballot.   

It needs 623,212 valid signatures. Backers submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures. State election officials reported late today that the proposal now has 98,159 valid or projected valid signatures of registered voters. 

The signature disqualification rate remains at about 22 percent. 

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24 -- 20 business days away. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

Look for an updated count tomorrow evening or early Friday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Nearly 15 Percent Along the Path Towards a Rescue

The latest figures on the effort to save the financially strapped California stem cell agency show that it is 14.7 percent along the way to placing a $5.5 billion rescue measure on the November ballot. 

State election officials reported late yesterday that the proposal now has  91,442 valid or projected valid signatures of registered voters. It needs 623,212 valid signatures and has submitted 924,183 "raw" signatures. 

The signature disqualification rate stands at about 22 percent. 

Large counties such as Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet reported on their verification efforts. The state deadline for counties to report their figures to the state is June 24 -- 20 business days away. 

The stem cell agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless it receives a substantial infusion of cash.

(Editor's note: An earlier version of this item incorrectly stated that the disqualification rate was 78 percent. It is 22 percent. The percentage of signatures that have been qualified stands at 78 percent.)

The $5.5 Billion California Stem Cell Countdown: One-Thirteenth Along the Way

Supporters of a $5.5 billion, proposed ballot initiative this morning are 13.3 percent along the way to qualifying the measure for the November ballot and possibly saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction. 

The proposal now has 82,723 valid or projected valid signatures of registered voters, which state election officials say is the key category. The measure needs 623,212 in signatures in that category to qualify.

The total of "raw," unverified signatures statewide is 924,183.  At this point, only 77.57 percent of the signatures are valid. But major counties such Los Angeles and San Diego have not yet completed their validation process. 

Twenty-two of the state's 58 counties have reported their counts. The  highest number of valid signatures has come from Sacramento with 26,761. The lowest number is from Modoc with four. 

The stem cell agency was created by California voters in 2004 when they approved a ballot initiative that also provided it with $3 billion of borrowed money but no other funding. The agency is running out of cash and will begin closing its doors next fall unless more substantial funding is forthcoming. 

Look for an update on the count Tuesday evening or early Wednesday right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

Editor's note: An earlier version of this item incorrectly stated that Mono County had the lowest number of valid signatures. It was actually Modoc.

$5.5 Billion California Stem Cell Countdown: Total Raw Signatures Now in With 924,213

One key step is now complete in the effort to qualify a $5.5 billion stem cell initiative for the November ballot in California and save its stem cell research program from running out of money.

The "raw" count of signature is finished with a total of 924,213, according to state election officials. That is almost exactly the same as the 925,000 figure that  campaign backers said they had submitted weeks ago.

The proposed ballot measure needs 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters to qualify. The count of valid or projected valid signatures stands at 75,484 as of late yesterday afternoon. The rate of rejected signatures is running at 22 percent. 

A number of populous counties have yet to report on their validation figures including Los Angeles, with 298,147 raw signatures, and San Diego, with 99,899. 

Counties have until June 24 to complete their count.

Look for an update later today or early tomorrow on the count right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

$5.5 Billion California Stem Cell Countdown: No Significant Changes Today

California election officials this afternoon reported no significant changes to the count to determine whether a $5.5 billion stem cell ballot initiative will qualify for the November ballot. 

Here are the results as of 4:55 p.m. PDT today:

Raw signature count -- Unchanged at 917,722, San Mateo County still not reporting

Valid signatures -- 5,202, up from 3,803 yesterday

Disqualification rate of signatures -- Nearly 23 percent, down from 24 percent yesterday

The proposal needs 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters to qualify for the ballot. The proposal is aimed at refinancing the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. 

$5.5 Billion California Stem Cell Countdown: Proposal Inches Towards Ballot

Efforts to place a $5.5 billion stem cell measure on California's November ballot edged slowly ahead yesterday with a slight increase in the number of valid voter signatures, which are critical to qualifying the proposal for presentation to voters. 

The proposal, which is aimed at saving the financial life of the state stem cell agency, needs 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters to make the ballot. Tuesday's total was 71,873, up from 45,407 the previous day. 

The total of unverified, raw signatures was unchanged at 917,722. Only one county, San Mateo, has not reported its raw totals.

The overall rejection rate for signatures stood at 23 percent, also nearly unchanged. Disqualification rates are higher in the more populous counties so far. If campaign has actually submitted 925,000 signatures, as it has claimed, it will need a disqualification rate statewide of no more than 32.6 percent to reach the required number. 

Without an infusion of substantial cash, the stem cell agency, which is running out of money, will begin closing its doors next fall.

County officials have until June 24 to complete their validation of signatures and submit the figures to the state. 

Look for an update on the signature count this evening or early tomorrow right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

The $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Count: A Bright Spot and a Not-So-Bright Spot

The effort to save the $3 billion California stem cell agency from financial extinction received some bad news and some good news late today, both of which could be expected. 

At stake is whether a $5.5 billion bond measure will be placed on the November ballot. The funds would be used to refinance the agency, which is running out of money and will begin closing its doors beginning next fall without an infusion of cash.

Qualifying the measure for the ballot requires 623,212 valid signatures of registered voters.  

Late today, the updated count of "raw," unvalidated signatures rose to 917,222 from 824,777 last Friday. The campaign for the ballot initiative has said it submitted 925,000 signatures to county election officials. Only one county, San Mateo, has not yet completed its raw count. 

The bad news is that the interim percentage of invalid signatures now stands at 24 percent, up from 18 percent. It is common to see large percentages of signatures disqualified during the verification process, sometimes as high as 50 percent. 

Today's rate rose because Sacramento reported that it disqualified 25.2 percent of the 35,792 raw signatures turned in by the campaign, The statewide rate will change as more counties report their validation numbers.

If campaign has actually submitted 925,000 signatures, it will need a disqualification rate statewide of no more than 32.6 percent to reach the required number. 

County officials have until June 24 to complete their validation of signatures and submit the figures to the state. 

Look for an update on the signature count Tuesday evening or early Wednesday right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

The $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Count: Stagnant at 824,777 'Raw' Signatures

The signature count to determine whether a $5.5 billion stem cell research initiative will come before California voters next fall remains unchanged this morning at 824,777 "raw" signatures. 

Also stagnant is the number of valid signatures -- 12,440. 

The proposal needs 623,212 valid signatures to qualify, but many of the "raw" signatures are likely to be disqualified. Only those from registered voters are accepted. The current disqualification rate is running at 18 percent, according to state election officials.  That rate involves smaller counties and could change. Also changing will be the number of valid signatures as county officials wade through the petitions. 

The raw total this morning is up from 760,601 earlier in the week. The campaign says it has submitted 925,000 "raw" signatures to county election officials. 

Known officially as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the state agency is running out of the $3 billion provided by voters in 2004. It will begin shuttering its doors late this year without a financial infusion. 

Look for an update on the signature count Monday evening right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

The $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Count: Latest Report Climbs to 824,777 'Raw' Signatures

The latest count in the race to save California's stem cell research program from financial extinction shows that its backers have chalked up 824,777 "raw" signatures in their effort to place a $5.5 billion proposal on the November ballot. 

The number this morning is up from 760,601 yesterday. The proposal needs only 623,212 valid signatures to qualify, but many of the "raw" signatures are likely to be disqualified. Only those from registered voters are accepted. The current disqualification rate is running at 18 percent, according to state election officials.  That rate involves smaller counties and could change. 

The campaign says it has submitted 925,000 signatures to county election officials. 

This morning's increase in signatures reflects the addition of signatures from Orange County and less populous areas. Still to be heard from are San Bernardino and San Mateo. Officials in California's 58 counties have until June 24 to complete verification of signatures. 

Known officially as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the state agency is running out the $3 billion provided by voters in 2004. It will begin shuttering its doors late this year without a financial infusion. 

Look for an update on the signature count this evening or early tomorrow right here on the California Stem Cell Report. 

The $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Count: No New Figures Today

California elections officials late this afternoon reported no new totals for the number of signatures gathered to place a $5.5 billion stem initiative on the November ballot. Backers of the ballot measure also have not responded to a query earlier today concerning their take on the signature verification. 

Signature Drive Ends for $5.5 Billion California Stem Cell Initiative; Will it Qualify for the Ballot?

Backers of a $5.5 billion ballot initiative to save the California stem cell research program from financial extinction said today that they had finished their petition drive to qualify the measure for the November ballot and expressed confidence that they had the more than 600,000 signatures needed. 

The announcement came after the campaign had missed three of its self-imposed deadlines for collecting 950,000 signatures as well as the state-recommended deadline of April 21.  The campaign said that the petitions have been delivered to county election officials around the state for verification of the signatures, a lengthy process that must be completed by June 15. If the work is not finished by then, the measure will not appear on the ballot. 

The initiative needs 623,212 valid signatures to qualify. The campaign's news release today said it had 925,000, down from its goal of 950,000. However, disqualification rates can run as high as 50 percent. Early last month after its public signature-gathering was halted because of coronavirus restrictions, it said had only 915,000. The campaign then kicked off what it called an "unprecedented," Internet, mail-in campaign to solicit signatures.  Later it began a direct mail effort, also unusual for an initiative qualification drive. 

The stem cell agency was created in 2004 by another ballot initiative and financed with $3 billion in state borrowing. It is now running out of money and will begin closing down in the fall if substantial funding is not received. 

Robert Klein, chairman of the campaign, said he was "confident" that the campaign had enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. He said, 

“Submitting signatures in time to qualify for the general election would not have been possible without our coalition of patient advocates, who banded together to help us
overcome the unprecedented challenge of signature gathering during a global pandemic – the effort is emblematic of our movement that has been widely supported and driven by patients and their families from the beginning”

Klein, who led the 2004 ballot campaign that created the agency, also cited the $5 million special, Covid-19, grant round now being conducted by the stem cell agency as example of the valuable work performed by the agency, officially known as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM).

One of the recipients of  a $750,000 award in the covid round, John Zaia of the City of Hope, was quoted in the campaign news release as saying,  

“We could be on the brink of medical discoveries that could save the lives of patients impacted by Covid-19 and other diseases, and this research simply would not be possible without the initial investment Californians made in the state’s stem cell program in 2004.

“Now, it is absolutely critical that this investment is renewed, allowing researchers like myself to continue to discover treatments and cures that can improve or save the lives of patients today and for generations to come.”

The City of Hope and many other recipient institutions have had a seat on the CIRM governing board since its inception.  According to CIRM figures, the City of Hope has received $117 million in grants since 2005. Zaia has received $33 million. 

The process of verifying and counting signatures is tedious under normal circumstances. County officials are now further hampered by work-related restrictions created by the coronavirus crisis. 

It is not clear whether enough signatures can be verified by June 25. That's the state deadline for qualifying for the November ballot. Two other unrelated initiatives failed or were withdrawn yesterday, state election officials said. Ironically one of the proposals would have allowed for the gathering of signatures online as a way to speed the task. 

The campaign has removed from its web site the outdated information concerning its petition solicitation effort, including the phrase "time is running out," which ran on its home page. But here is a link to the petition page from April 22 as archived by the California Stem Cell Report:  

A Stem Cell Ballot Initiative in Your Mailbox: Thank you Montgomery Ward

The campaign to refinance California's stem cell agency took a tool from Montgomery Ward in its effort to qualify a $5.5 billion measure for the ballot this fall. The unusual -- for a ballot initiative -- tactic was part of a last gasp push to secure 950,000 signatures. Whether it was successful will be determined in the upcoming weeks. Here is a piece from Capitol Weekly, where it was initially posted, that examined how the direct mail effort worked. The article was written by yours truly.

For survival, stem cell agency hunts for ‘wet signatures’

BY DAVID JENSEN POSTED 05.05.2020

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The folks who are trying to save the $3 billion California stem cell agency from financial extinction are using a well-worn technique that goes back to ancient Egypt, at least by some accounts.

It is expensive, depending on what you are peddling, and generates a return as low as 1 percent. It is direct mail, but with a significant twist. It involves the collection of “wet signatures” and the signing of documents that must be produced in a fussy, legal fashion.

The process requires a bit more commitment from voters than, say, returning a pitch from the Readers Digest Sweepstakes. And it is likely that the effort is the first time that anyone has made a major push — both by direct mail and online — to collect tens of thousands of voters’ signatures to qualify an initiative for the ballot in California.

It is a life or death matter for the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), otherwise known as the state stem cell agency. CIRM is running out of money and will begin to close its doors next fall unless it receives a life-preserving jolt of cash. The proposed ballot initiative would do that nicely with an injection of $5.5 billion.

Ordinarily, qualifying a measure for the ballot in the Golden State is simple. All you need is money. The cash goes to firms that hire hundreds of people to solicit hundreds of thousands of signatures in public places. The coronavirus put a stop to that sort of public behavior back in March.

The result was a big crimp in the plans of the “Californians for Stem Cell Research, Treatment and Cures,” as the campaign has dubbed itself.

It announced that 35,000 more signatures were needed. “Time is running out,” the campaign warned on its web site.

On hand were 915,000 signatures. Qualifying the measure for the ballot requires only 623,212 signatures of registered voters. But disqualification rates for ballot initiative signatures can run as high as 50 percent, and the campaign wanted a bigger cushion.

It fired up what it described as an “unprecedented,” effort online, but one that is a tad complicated.

First, someone interested in finding a stem cell petition to sign must know that they can find one on the Internet, which is a big ask. Then, if their search leads them to the proper web site, they will encounter lengthy instructions.

The process is not simple. The campaign’s web site mentions “wet signatures,” ones that are signed in ink. Then there is the need to print out the 16 pages of the petition from the web site and the need to complete the “circulator declaration.” A seven-minute, “sign-at-home training”  video was posted by the campaign to guide wandering supporters along the signature trail. 

About April 13, the campaign quietly boosted its cyberspace pitch with direct mail, presumably targeting households likely to be sympathetic to spending $5.5 billion for stem cell research via the ballot initiative.

A packet of the direct mail material surfaced recently in Santa Barbara.  The California Stem Cell Report subsequently asked the campaign about the direct mail effort, but it has remained all but mum, with the exception of providing a rough start date for direct mail effort. Unanswered are such questions as how many packets were mailed, their return rate and cost and whether there is a precedent for mailing out petitions in this fashion?

The campaign’s direct mail effort is significant and holds some promise. But the  tasks for recipients take time and pose some barriers that can lower a response rate.

The question is whether the unusual effort will pay off?  To answer that, let’s assume that the direct mail pitch generates a 2% return with an average of one signature per household, which may be generous based on what is known about direct mail efforts. Let’s assume that the campaign would like to gather by direct mail only a portion of the 35,000 signature shortfall, for example, about 15,000. That would mean producing and mailing 750,000 packets to collect 15,000 signatures, which, of course, also need to come from verified registered voters.

Costs are not insignificant. Aside from postage, one web site estimates that production costs for business direct mail range from 30 cents to $10 each, depending on size and complexity.

Direct mail does work. That’s why it has been around in a significant way for many decades and fills your mailbox every day. It is not clear who in the campaign came up with its direct mail plan. But the campaign is very much the creature of Robert Klein, a Palo Alto real estate developer who also directed the 2004 campaign that led to the creation of the stem cell agency. He spent more than six years as its first chairman and is the chairman of his own stem cell advocacy group, Americans for Cures, which has offices in Klein’s Palo Alto building.

Klein is acutely aware that next November could mean the extinction of an enterprise he has devoted years to. Few good alternatives exist beyond passage of this year’s initiative. It’s this year or never, he basically told CIRM directors in 2017.  No one, however, could have predicted the coronavirus crisis that halted normal signature gathering. So today Klein is emulating the direct marketing examples of a landowner in ancient Egypt and of a man named Aaron Montgomery Ward who launched his first one-page catalog in 1872 and who can be considered the father of modern direct mail.

California will soon know whether Klein has been as successful as Mr. Ward, whose catalog became imbued in American culture as the nation’s “Wish Book.”

Tentacles, Railroads and California Stem Cell Finances: Looking for Greater Returns

The tentacles of railroad greed were the subject of many a political
cartoon in 19th and early 20th century California. 

California's $3 billion stem cell agency owes a "debt," you might say, to the Golden State's railroad, robber barons of the 19th century. 

The railroads were regarded as an evil "octopus," preying on helpless Californians. And the long-ago, railroad power over the state and its economy was a key reason behind a provision in the state Constitution that bars the state and its stem cell agency from owning stock in companies. 

The rationale was that buying railroad stock with taxpayer dollars amounted to unnecessary and most likely corrupt financial assistance to the "octopus" -- the old quid-pro-quo thing. 

Today the prohibition on owning stock in companies rankles some directors of the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), as the stem cell agency is formally known.

The matter revolves around the desire to secure a better financial return on CIRM's investment in companies such as Forty Seven, Inc., whose stock has skyrocketed in the last four months. 

The agency has pumped many millions into Forty Seven, which is testing an "eat me" immune therapy aimed at destroying cancer cells. The state could realize a return on royalties at some point --  if an "eat me" treatment ever makes a profit. But meanwhile, other private investors in the company are enjoying a handsome return, if they bought Forty Seven stock at the right time and sell at the right time. 

CIRM Director Jeff Sheehy has long been concerned about finding a way to generate better financial returns on CIRM's financial support of stem cell companies, along with the basic research that that the agency backs. 

In response to a query last week, Sheehy said in an email to the California Stem Cell Report, 

"You're asking the right question...and a central one as voters consider more funding for CIRM. Clearly in this instance (Forty Seven's stock price hike), a lot of money will be made off research funded by CIRM. 

"What exactly is the state's cut?  Will the state see any money if (the purchase of Forty Seven by) Gilead goes through and if not, why?

 "If the problem is the inability of the state via CIRM to hold equity, why doesn't the new measure fix this so that the investment by state realizes a fair return to our taxpayers? 

"I note that Stanford will make out like a bandit on this deal, and it's ironic that the (stem cell agency) board had to force Stanford to fulfill its commitment to co-fund another project with a similar product, that btw, is also licensed to Forty Seven.  

"Stanford has received about 12.5% of CIRM's funds. With the next measure, the same percentage going to this institution will mean that Stanford will have received over $1 billion from the state.  Should we not guarantee that the state receives its full share so it can fund healthcare, schools, teachers, community colleges, mental health needs, ending homelessness etc?"

The new measure that Sheehy refers to is a proposed ballot initiative to give the agency an additional $5.5 billion. CIRM is running out of money and will begin closing its doors if voters do not approve the proposal next November. 

While the complex measure significantly broadens the scope of CIRM operations, it does not alter the state Constitution. Doing so would require more signatures to qualify the measure for the ballot (meaning more cost to the initiative backers). 

A major constitutional change could also open a significant, new opportunity to attack the stem cell program and imperil passage of the current proposal.

During its 15-year history, CIRM has not conducted a major public examination of removing the ban to generate a better payoff for the state. The fact that the ban has been around for a century may testify to the political difficulties of such a task.

As for Stanford, it is the No. 1 recipient of CIRM awards with a total of $338 million and has had a representative on the CIRM board since its inception, a situation not uncommon with other recipient institutions. The agency has rules in place to prevent legal conflicts of interest. But about 90 percent of CIRM funding has gone to institutions with board representation, according to an accounting by the California Stem Cell Report. 

Leland Stanford, Wikipedia image

A final note of irony: Stanford University was founded by Leland Stanford, one of the four robber barons of California. He and his colleagues initially earned their reputation by building the western half of the transcontinental railroad with government funding. They were paid for each mile of track they laid, generating a hasty process that did not encourage quality work. 

Wikipedia adds,

"In 1975 the student body of Stanford University voted to use 'Robber Barons' as the nickname for their sports teams. However, school administrators disallowed it, saying it was disrespectful to the school's founder."

Gold-Plated Stem Cell Treatments, Multi-billion Dollar Benefits and Potential Industry Profits

One of the nation's leading regenerative medicine industry groups is touting multi-billion dollar savings that may be achieved with the type of stem cell and gene therapies that are being developed with cash from California's financially beleaguered stem cell program.

The industry group is the Washington, D.C.,-based Alliance for Regenerative Medicine (ARM). It is tackling one of the major issues facing development of commercial stem cell therapies -- sticker shock at their expected prices, running upwards of a $1 million or more.

Without a willingness from health care insurers to cover the costs and provide a pathway to profit, it is unlikely that the biotech industry will embrace production of the therapies.

In a study released last Friday, the group said,

"Advances in molecular biology and genetics are leading to new treatments for rare diseases that require new ways of assessing value. CGTs (cell and gene therapies) are directed at the underlying cause of a condition and offer durable, potentially curative, or near-curative benefits. These transformative therapies create challenges for current reimbursement frameworks as they (the therapies) require significant upfront costs but are expected to provide a lifetime of benefits. The recurring treatment costs of chronically-managed patients can be greatly reduced and even eliminated with a one-time administration or short course of these novel therapies. 

"As CGTs arrive on the market, payers need new models for assessing their value. These treatments could potentially end the patient’s burden of illness, resulting in cost offsets (eliminating or reducing the need for long-term treatment, hospitalizations, and other care) and productivity gains that span a lifetime. Manufacturers incur a high per-patient development cost for these therapies and payers who bear the cost of treatment may not realize the long-term financial benefits due to health plan switching."

The ARM study predicted cost savings of as much as $33.6 billion over about a decade in connection with three afflictions: sickle cell disease (SCD), multiple myeloma (MM) and hemophilia A (Hem A). 

California's stem cell agency was not mentioned in the study, but it has funded research in all three areas. The agency is a member of ARM.

The study, backed by ARM and performed by the Marwood Group, said,

"Access to CGTs for even a modest number of patients with MM, SCD, and Hem A each year can reduce overall disease costs by nearly 23% over a 10-year period. The savings from lowering healthcare costs and raising productivity are considerable, approaching $34 billion by 2029. Of the savings, $31 billion are from a reduction in healthcare costs and $3 billion are from productivity gains."

The model used by ARM assumed CGT prices as high as $2 million. The study said,

 "The model has tested more than 180 different prices across the three potential CGTs that ranged from a minimum test price of $150,000 and up to a maximum price test of $2,000,000. The prices entered into the model created 60 different cost savings curves for all three of drugs in this model. Prices were distributed with more than 50% of test prices in the $100,000-$600,000 price per administration range."

The discussion of the costs of stem cell therapies has special resonance in the Golden State where voters are likely to be asked next fall to give $5.5 billion more to its stem cell agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM).

The agency, funded with $3 billion in 2004, is down to its last $27 million. A new, proposed ballot initiative is focusing hard on affordability of stem cell treatments. The initiative has no specific solutions but stipulates that a new version of CIRM  -- if the ballot measure is approved -- should devise some ways to come up with answers for insurers who are not likely to warm easily to $1 million therapies.