A $5.5 billion initiative to refinance the California stem cell agency with $5.5 billion chalked up additional formal progress today, although it is clear that it will go before voters in November.
The numbers already show that the measure is virtually certain to make the ballot unless something extremely unusual occurs. The California Stem Cell Report earlier today analyzed the trends in the signature count, concluding that qualification is in the "virtual bag." The analysis also appeared on Capitol Weekly, an online California government and politics news service.
Today's figures from state officials showed 484,973 verified signatures of registered voters, up from 481,689 on Friday. The campaign is hoping for 685,534. The qualification rate is steady at about 78 percent. If the qualification rate stays fractionally above 67 percent, the measure will be placed on the ballot.
Only 17 counties out of 58 have not filed their verification numbers.
Look for the next update on the count tomorrow evening or early Wednesday on the California Stem Cell Report, your only independent source of information and news about the stem cell agency for the last 15 years.
(Editor's note: An earlier version said that 16 counties have not filed their verification numbers. The correct figure is 17.)
Monday, June 08, 2020
California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Ballot Qualification in Virtual Bag
California Stem Cell Initiative:
Current Shortfall for Ballot Qualification
Source: California Secretary of State 6/5/2020/California Stem Cell Report
The $5.5 billion California stem cell initiative is virtually certain to qualify for the fall ballot as the arithmetic of the signature count begins to fall into place.
The measure needs only slightly more than the 67 percent of the signatures that remain to be verified as coming from registered voters. The qualification percentage of raw signatures so far is 78 percent.
It is unlikely that that the qualification rate for the remaining raw signatures would drop as low as 66 per percent unless something quite unusual occurs. Only 18 of the 58 counties have yet to verify their raw signatures, which total 305,312. The initiative needs 203,845 verified signatures to make the ballot.
The ballot initiative is aimed at saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction. Known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the agency has nearly run through the $3 billion it received from voters in 2004. Without a major cash infusion, it will begin closing its doors next fall.
It is unlikely that that the qualification rate for the remaining raw signatures would drop as low as 66 per percent unless something quite unusual occurs. Only 18 of the 58 counties have yet to verify their raw signatures, which total 305,312. The initiative needs 203,845 verified signatures to make the ballot.
The ballot initiative is aimed at saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction. Known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the agency has nearly run through the $3 billion it received from voters in 2004. Without a major cash infusion, it will begin closing its doors next fall.
The campaign is shooting for the quickest way to the ballot. It submitted 924,189 raw signatures about one month ago. Legally, the measure needs only 623,212 signatures that are verified to have come from registered voters.
However, the state permits a combination of a random and hand count total of 110 percent of that number to qualify a measure without going to a signature-by-signature verification. County election officials are currently in the combination, random sample phase of checking the signatures on the ballot initiative petition.
However, the state permits a combination of a random and hand count total of 110 percent of that number to qualify a measure without going to a signature-by-signature verification. County election officials are currently in the combination, random sample phase of checking the signatures on the ballot initiative petition.
If the current process falls short of 110 percent, the state requires a "full check" of each signature, a task that likely cannot be completed by the state's deadline of June 25. Counties have until June 24 to report to the state. (If the percentage falls below 95, the measure will not qualify.)
See here for the state's official report on the count as of the end of work last Friday. Here are more details on how the initiative process works in California.
The California Stem Cell Report will have updated figures this evening or early tomorrow.
See here for the state's official report on the count as of the end of work last Friday. Here are more details on how the initiative process works in California.
The California Stem Cell Report will have updated figures this evening or early tomorrow.
California Stem Cell Ballot Initiative Signature Count
Unverified/raw signatures outstanding as of June 5, 2020
Source: California Secretary of State 6/5/2020, California Stem Cell Report
(Editor's note: An earlier version of this chart listed San Joaquin in place of San Francisco.)
(Editor's note: An earlier version of this chart listed San Joaquin in place of San Francisco.)
Saturday, June 06, 2020
California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: 70 Percent on the Way to Making the Ballot
State election officials yesterday reported that the $5.5 billion, California stem cell initiative is 70 percent on its way to qualifying for the November ballot.
The latest number of valid signatures totalled 481,689. The measure's backers hope that they will have 685,534 valid signatures of registered voters out of 924,189 unverified signatures they submitted nearly a month ago.
The qualification rate still stands at about 78 percent.
The proposal would save the financial life of the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It was provided with $3 billion by California voers who created in in 2004. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance.
Reporting in yesterday was Orange County. Among the larger counties not yet reporting are San Diego and Riverside.
Look for an update on the tally Monday evening or early Tuesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM).
The latest number of valid signatures totalled 481,689. The measure's backers hope that they will have 685,534 valid signatures of registered voters out of 924,189 unverified signatures they submitted nearly a month ago.
The qualification rate still stands at about 78 percent.
The proposal would save the financial life of the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It was provided with $3 billion by California voers who created in in 2004. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance.
Reporting in yesterday was Orange County. Among the larger counties not yet reporting are San Diego and Riverside.
Look for an update on the tally Monday evening or early Tuesday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM).
Thursday, June 04, 2020
California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Sixty Percent on the Way to the Ballot
The $5.5 billion, California stem cell initiative this afternoon climbed closer to qualifying for the ballot but still remains more 200,000 signatures away from going before voters in the fall.
The measure is an effort to financially rescue the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance.
Today's report from state election officials showed 411,839 verified signatures out of a raw total of 924,189. Backers of the measure are hoping for 685,534 valid signatures to avoid going to a "full check," signature-by-signature count. Such an effort in 58 counties could be so prolonged that the measure would miss the deadline for being placed on the ballot.
The current count is a combination of a hand count and random sampling.
State election officials have set a deadline of June 24 for counties to submit figures. The state's own deadline to complete its work is June 25.
Today's tally is 60 percent of the needed 685,534. It is 110 percent of the legally required figure of 623,212.
So far about 78 percent of the raw signatures have been verified as coming from legally registered voters.
Still missing from the total of verified signatures are San Diego, Riverside and Orange counties, which have a total of 200,546 raw signatures.
Look for an update on the tally tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM).
The measure is an effort to financially rescue the California stem cell agency, which is running out of money. It will begin shutting down this fall without substantial financial assistance.
Today's report from state election officials showed 411,839 verified signatures out of a raw total of 924,189. Backers of the measure are hoping for 685,534 valid signatures to avoid going to a "full check," signature-by-signature count. Such an effort in 58 counties could be so prolonged that the measure would miss the deadline for being placed on the ballot.
The current count is a combination of a hand count and random sampling.
State election officials have set a deadline of June 24 for counties to submit figures. The state's own deadline to complete its work is June 25.
Today's tally is 60 percent of the needed 685,534. It is 110 percent of the legally required figure of 623,212.
So far about 78 percent of the raw signatures have been verified as coming from legally registered voters.
Still missing from the total of verified signatures are San Diego, Riverside and Orange counties, which have a total of 200,546 raw signatures.
Look for an update on the tally tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning right here on the California Stem Cell Report, your source for the last 15 years for all things dealing with the stem cell agency, officially known as California Institute for Regenerative Medicine(CIRM).
Wednesday, June 03, 2020
California's $5.5 Billion Stem Cell Countdown: Two Pathways to the Ballot But Maybe One Not So Good
A $5.5 billion, proposed ballot measure today is anywhere from 58 percent to 63 percent on its way to possibly saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction.
The agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), is running out of money -- the $3 billion that voters gave it in 2004. It needs the initiative to qualify for the ballot and voters to approve it or CIRM will begin closing its doors next fall.
As of this evening, the multibillion dollar rescue proposal was nominally 63 percent along the road to qualifying. The measure had 394,237 valid signatures of registered voters, according to election officials. It needs 623,212.
But the campaign says it really wants substantially more. A campaign official today said that its desired figure is 685,534, 110 percent of 623,212. Reaching 110 percent would avoid a "full check," which is a prolonged verification of each signature. That process might not be finished until after the deadline of June 24 for counties to get their figures to state election officials. The state schedules its verification on June 25.
A goal of reaching 685,534, however, means that the backers of the measure have only 58 percent of the signatures needed.
"If the result of the (now ongoing) random sample indicates that the number of valid signatures represents between 95% and 110% of the required number of signatures to qualify the initiative or referendum measure for the ballot, the secretary of state directs the county elections officials to verify every signature on the petition," according to the state's ballot initiative web site.
"For an initiative measure, if the number of valid signatures is greater than 110 percent of the required number of signatures, the initiative measure will be eligible for the ballot," the state says.
Critical to the process is the percentage of qualified signatures out of the 924,189 that were turned in May 12 by the measure's backers. That percentage is holding relatively steady at about 78 and has varied little as the count has progressed over several weeks. As long as validity rate stays above about 74 percent, the initiative will be sent to voters.
"We’ve been very pleased with the validity rate so far and believe we have more than enough valid signatures to qualify," said Sarah Melbostad, a campaign spokeswoman.
The measure's validity rate is also closely aligned with five other initiatives that have qualified or nearly qualified in recent months for the fall ballot. Those initiatives have run or are running at rates that range from 73 percent to 78 percent. That is significant because the signatures are largely gathered by firms that specialize in that sort of work.
It is reasonable to surmise that the firms, which compete for business, are more than likely to produce similar results. (For the other initiatives, see here and also here. The five initiatives mentioned had to labor under the restrictions of the Covid crisis.)
Officials have not yet verified signatures in some larger counties including San Diego, Orange and Riverside.
Look for the latest figures tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report.
The agency, known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), is running out of money -- the $3 billion that voters gave it in 2004. It needs the initiative to qualify for the ballot and voters to approve it or CIRM will begin closing its doors next fall.
As of this evening, the multibillion dollar rescue proposal was nominally 63 percent along the road to qualifying. The measure had 394,237 valid signatures of registered voters, according to election officials. It needs 623,212.
But the campaign says it really wants substantially more. A campaign official today said that its desired figure is 685,534, 110 percent of 623,212. Reaching 110 percent would avoid a "full check," which is a prolonged verification of each signature. That process might not be finished until after the deadline of June 24 for counties to get their figures to state election officials. The state schedules its verification on June 25.
A goal of reaching 685,534, however, means that the backers of the measure have only 58 percent of the signatures needed.
"If the result of the (now ongoing) random sample indicates that the number of valid signatures represents between 95% and 110% of the required number of signatures to qualify the initiative or referendum measure for the ballot, the secretary of state directs the county elections officials to verify every signature on the petition," according to the state's ballot initiative web site.
Critical to the process is the percentage of qualified signatures out of the 924,189 that were turned in May 12 by the measure's backers. That percentage is holding relatively steady at about 78 and has varied little as the count has progressed over several weeks. As long as validity rate stays above about 74 percent, the initiative will be sent to voters.
"We’ve been very pleased with the validity rate so far and believe we have more than enough valid signatures to qualify," said Sarah Melbostad, a campaign spokeswoman.
The measure's validity rate is also closely aligned with five other initiatives that have qualified or nearly qualified in recent months for the fall ballot. Those initiatives have run or are running at rates that range from 73 percent to 78 percent. That is significant because the signatures are largely gathered by firms that specialize in that sort of work.
It is reasonable to surmise that the firms, which compete for business, are more than likely to produce similar results. (For the other initiatives, see here and also here. The five initiatives mentioned had to labor under the restrictions of the Covid crisis.)
Officials have not yet verified signatures in some larger counties including San Diego, Orange and Riverside.
Look for the latest figures tomorrow evening or early Friday on the California Stem Cell Report.
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